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If you want to make your dream of owning a Rolex come true in 2023, you face a dilemma: endless waiting times or astronomical prices on the secondary market? We explain how the infamous "waiting list" works, which models demand the most patience, and which collections offer the best chances of success.
Top Secret: Rolex Production Numbers per Year
Waiting times for a new luxury watch from the storied Geneva brand are increasingly reaching absurd proportions: an estimated 20 years is how long a prospective buyer today would have to wait for a GMT-Master II "Pepsi" before finally wearing the coveted reference 126710BLRO on their wrist. Half a working life! The reason for this situation is artificial scarcity: the manufacturer increases production only minimally, while global demand for the most famous watch brand of all time is growing rapidly.
Many people wonder: how many watches does Rolex actually produce each year? Neither the company itself nor the COSC chronometer testing institute publishes figures that would allow conclusions about the total volume, but Morgan Stanley's annual report "State of the Industry - Swiss Watchmaking in 2022" provides a rough estimate: 1.05 million watches.
For comparison: Omega produced just 570,000 units, Breitling 170,000 watches, and Patek Philippe a modest 68,000 timepieces. The fact that the five-pointed crown has the largest excess demand despite its impressive annual output of Rolex watches demonstrates the brand's enormous popularity.
The Waiting List Myth: Nothing Binding About It
But what exactly would you have to do to get one of those roughly 1 million pieces? The widely used term "waiting list" suggests a fixed order: you sign up with the dealer, the dealer notes your request, and Geneva works through the orders year after year. If only! In reality, classic waiting lists, let alone binding order lists, no longer exist today – only "interest lists." Many prospective buyers go to an authorized dealer, get themselves put on one of these interest lists, and believe they have secured one of the scarce Rolex watches, at least in the distant future. A mistake: often hundreds of customers are on the same dealer's interest list without ever having a realistic chance at their dream watch. Only the dealer's binding confirmation that you have moved up from the interest list to their "official" waiting list provides certainty.
To understand the "system," picture three stages: manufacturer --> dealer --> customer. Rolex's limited annual production is allocated to the various dealers in limited quantities. An authorized dealer or online shop might receive 50 Submariners per year, for example, while perhaps only five pieces of the extremely coveted Daytona make their way to the dealer. The dealer will most likely distribute this tiny allocation among their best regular customers, leaving new customers empty-handed. Anyone the dealer catches selling their new watch on the secondary market right after purchase for two to three times the price ends up on a "blacklist" and will no longer receive allocations at MSRP in the future.
Up to 20 Years: The Longest Waiting Times
In plain terms, this means customers have no power; they are supplicants dependent on the dealer's goodwill. The scarcity – whose greatest advantage is the near-absolute value retention of almost all the brand's watches – is most extreme with the iconic Daytona. If you want to buy the hotly contested stainless steel reference 116500LN at MSRP, current information suggests you can expect to wait around 20 years. By comparison, the 12-year wait for a "Trabi" in the former East Germany seems almost humane. If you prefer the dual time zone of the Rolex GMT-Master II, the black-and-blue "Batman" offers a more readily available alternative to the red-and-blue "Pepsi": here you should plan on an average of 7 years rather than 20. For every model, of course, the question arises: how many watches does Rolex produce? We suspect an at least partially negative correlation: the lower the output, the longer the wait.
Other models with long waiting times include the coveted Submariner "Hulk" (Ref. 116610LV), where the time from expressing interest to unboxing is around 4 years, and the extremely water-resistant Deepsea 126660: released in 2022, this giant, rated to 3,900 meters, keeps buyers waiting around three years. The same applies to the brand's most functionally complex watch: new customers need at least 36 months of perseverance for a Rolesor Sky-Dweller in steel and white gold (Ref. 326934).
Which Models Are Available the Fastest?
The good news: not every model requires astronomical stamina, as the extremely popular Datejust 41 proves. An average wait of three to twelve months is on par with ordering a new car, with steel models typically requiring more patience than precious-metal models. This rule applied to all Rolex watches until a few years ago, but it is becoming blurred as excess demand rises. Two-tone editions (Rolesor) were also always known for the shortest waiting times, but they are currently gaining in popularity.
Other editions that don't demand superhuman patience from new buyers include the adventurous Explorer II (about one year on average), the nautical Yacht-Master I and II collections (6 to 18 months), and the timeless entry-level Oyster, with a waiting time of 6 to 12 months. The Air King and Milgauss series should also be on your wrist within a year at the latest. These figures are approximate guidelines as of this article's publication (March 2023); they are not a guarantee and may shift abruptly in the future.
Certified Pre-Owned: An Alternative to Waiting
But let's be honest: even a "moderate" 12-month wait is no fun for any watch lover. Rather than asking "How many watches does Rolex produce per year?", the focus should be on finding solutions. Our recommendation is to buy pre-owned models that are popular but haven't fallen victim to a "Pepsi"-style hype. Online shops such as Uhrinstinkt carry a selection of certified pre-owned models that are checked for full functionality by a professional watchmaker before they are sold.
The Oyster, Datejust, and Milgauss editions in particular are, as "Certified Pre-Owned" pieces, still partly in a price range that isn't light-years away from MSRP. Daytonas and GMT-Master IIs, on the other hand, command immense premiums over the manufacturer's prices even on the pre-owned market. The biggest advantage of buying pre-owned is that there's no waiting time: you get your dream watch immediately and can sell it at any time without fear of blacklists, allowing you to benefit fully from any appreciation in value.
In Short: How Many Watches Does Rolex Make per Year?
Estimates suggest that Rolex produces just over one million watches per year. How often each model is manufactured per year varies greatly. Even though the company doesn't publish any figures, it's safe to assume that the brand with the crown keeps supply tight. At present, there is no sign of the excess demand easing in the market for the Geneva brand's watches. Should the situation relax in the future, we'll keep you posted.
